Population Pressure and Fertility in Pre-Transition Thailand

Before the demographic transition in Thailand, fertility was high, but not
uniformlys o. As in other pre-transitions ettings,T hai fertilityr espondedt o pressuresa nd
opportunitiesc reated by socioeconomic structurea nd land availability.D rawing upon
provinciadl ataf romt he 1947a nd 1960c ensuseso f Thailand,w e find a strong' frontiere ffect'
on Thai fertility in the 1950s. Fertility was higher in sparsely settled frontier provinces and
loweri n provincesw ith higherp opulationd ensityr elativet o cultivatablela nd. This findingi s
robusta nd holds up with controlsf or agriculturaelm ploymentl,a nd quality,a nd the sex ratio
(an indicator of sex-selective migration). The effect of population pressure lowers the
likelihoodo f marriagea nd of maritalf ertilityT. he findingsf romT hailanda rec onsistentw ith
the researcho f Easterlino n the nineteenthc enturyU nitedS tatesa ndw ith otherp re-transition
societies. We suggest how demographic transition theory might be broadened to include
fertilityd ynamicsin pre-transitionso cieties